Other data show that in June 2024, Germany's newly installed energy storage capacity was 260.4MW/389.3MWh, with installed capacity falling 26% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month. The performance is still relatively sluggish. Among them, the newly installed capacity of household storage in June was 255MW/372MWh, which was -28%/-3% respectively compared with the previous month. The main reason for the weakness was the decline in photovoltaic installed capacity. The year-on-year decline in German photovoltaic installed capacity in June expanded from -11% in May. to -18%, the downward trend is more obvious. At the same time, Germany's off-meter large storage and industrial and commercial energy storage increased year-on-year, but the absolute growth was relatively limited. Germany's newly installed capacity of large-scale storage in front of the table reached 14.9MW/29.7MWh in June, which was +22%/+143% compared with the previous month; the newly installed capacity of industrial and commercial energy storage was 7.26MW/17.6MWh, which was +17%/increased compared with the previous month. -2%. From the above data, we can see a very significant change, that is, the German energy storage market is moving from a single household storage pattern to a diversified one. The source-grid side energy storage market will grow faster than household storage, which means , in Germany and even Europe, new markets are ready to develop.
The UK and Italy become the driving forces behind the growth of large European reserves
While Germany's large-scale storage is growing rapidly, the UK and Italy are also important drivers of Europe's large-scale storage growth in the short term. The UK energy storage market has always been dominated by large-scale storage, with relatively complete project cases and policy frameworks. Since 2020, installed capacity has doubled every year, and the European Energy Storage Association (EASE) predicts that it is expected to continue to grow in the next two years. In the first half of 2024, the UK's large-scale storage installed capacity was temporarily affected by the project rhythm, and the grid-connection delay phenomenon improved only slightly. The grid-connected scale in June was only 0.12MW, and the newly installed capacity in 2024Q2 was 178.3MW, both year-on-year and month-on-month. According to Modo Energy statistics, in the first half of 2024, the UK's large-scale storage installed capacity was 0.32GW, a year-on-year decrease of -58.7%. At the end of the third quarter, the planned grid-connected scale reached 1.1GW, but the actual scale of operation is expected to be only 150-430MW. From the current situation, the UK's large-scale storage still needs to wait for further optimization of the approval process before returning to high growth in 2023. At the same time, Italy has set a renewable energy target for 2030, investing 17.7 billion euros to build large-scale storage projects in the south and islands, with a planned installed capacity of up to 9GW/71GWh. According to EASE's forecast, large-scale storage installations will be mainly in the UK and Italy in 2024, and by 2030, other European countries will begin to increase their installations, and Europe's cumulative installed capacity is expected to reach 71GW/172GWh.
Industry insiders believe that the main reason for the year-on-year decline in household storage capacity in the European market in 2024 is the impact of the downward trend in electricity prices and the reduction of subsidies in some countries on the demand for household storage. In terms of electricity prices, in June 2024, the average wholesale electricity price in 28 European countries was 76.38 euros/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 14.64%. Looking back from 2022 to date, European wholesale electricity prices have fallen sharply and gradually transmitted to terminal electricity prices. According to HEPI statistics, in July 2024, European terminal electricity prices have fallen to 0.242 euros/kWh. In terms of policy decline, Italy's Superbonus plan will be implemented in 2020, and the tax credit for household storage equipment will be increased to 110%. At the end of 2022, Italy has made it clear that the tax credit for 2023-2025 will be reduced to 90%, 70% and 65% respectively. The decline in electricity prices and the reduction in subsidies will inevitably affect the demand for energy storage. Data shows that Italy's energy storage installed capacity in Q1 2024 reached 440MW/914MWh, down 25.9%/-21.3% year-on-year. Judging from the shipment of inverters, China's exports to Europe have shown a month-on-month upward trend since March. In June 2024, China's inverter exports to Europe reached 2.465 billion yuan, up 2.7% month-on-month. At present, the destocking of European inverters is nearing its end. With the increasing number of large-scale photovoltaic projects and the annual increase in residential electricity consumption, Europe's large storage demand will be released. According to SPE's forecast, Europe's large storage installed capacity will reach 11GWh in 2024, up 205% year-on-year. In 2024, the proportion of large storage installed capacity will reach 49%, surpassing the 39% installed capacity of household storage. SPE predicts that by 2028, large storage installed capacity will reach 35.9GWh, that is, in recent years, the European energy storage market will gradually shift from being dominated by household storage to being dominated by large storage.